Rabaska: irrelevant energy for Quebec
Denis The Man, The authors were respectively CEO of conventional energy sources from 1979 to 1985 and Associate Deputy Minister for Energy at the Ministry of Natural Resources from 1992 to 1995 and Director in the Directorate of hydrocarbons (gas and oil) and director of security at oil facilities Department of Natural Resources from 1982 to 2001.
We should increase the consumption of gas in Quebec to justify supply
As Jean-Robert Sansfacon rightly stressed in an editorial published in Le Devoir Saturday, relevance Energy Rabaska for Quebec has never been established, neither the promoter nor by the BAPE, nor by the Ministry of Natural Resources of Quebec.
Promoters have constantly trumpeted the contrary before the BAPE, claiming that Rabaska "increase the energy security of gas supplies and result in lower gas prices" in Quebec. None of these statements can resist any serious analysis.
Natural gas source growth?
As the sponsor is state itself, the main source of growth in gas sales in North America come from the production of electricity from natural gas. This usage is even designated as the main source of growth in gas demand in Quebec (Central TransCanada Energy in Bécancour, now in operation). Except that the disastrous experience for both Hydro-Quebec and the government, the thermal power project Suroît, in our view, sealed the fate of fossil heat production in Quebec. The developer has acknowledged in recent hearings of the BAPE that there would be no increase in gas demand in Quebec for electricity generation.
is hard to imagine, in fact, the Quebec government or its subsidiary, Hydro-Quebec, renounce their commitment to "green" respectively, the first of which would champion the Canadian renewable energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions while Hydro-Quebec has "the clear choice of the green industry." The most recent development plan of Hydro-Quebec and the latest energy policy for Quebec will make up only hydroelectric and wind and, quite appropriately, to save energy. It is unrealistic to believe that natural gas may grow, if that were the case, by any means other than by substitution between the two forms of energy.
Again, proponents of Rabaska do not demonstrate a greater insight.
Equipment cost
In the tertiary sector, natural gas already has 60% market the heater, and this despite the fact that gas is not available on the entire territory of Quebec. So it's not where the potential gains would fall but rather in the residential heating, where gas accounts for only 10%. But the market penetration of heating depends as much on the cost of equipment than that of energy. All analysts, excluding those of Rabaska systems therefore provide that electricity will increase their market share slightly in 2016.
The demand growth in Québec does not justify double (or triple if one takes into account the proposed Cacouna Energy) gas supply in Quebec since, in all likelihood, this growth will be negative.
promoter Rabaska How can he imagine a sudden reversal of this trend in favor of natural gas and a massive conversion of electrical current to the benefit of this form of energy? This time, the inaccuracy is almost as bad faith. Although a significant reversal of the price ratio for the gas (which is also unpredictable) could cause consumers to consider switching system heating, a heavy barrier to change will always exist. 60% of housing stock is equipped with baseboard heaters while the cost of installing an alternative system may be considerable, and it is still necessary as it is technically feasible.
Shop on Main Street
Then comes the so-called "positive effect on the tip of Hydro-Quebec raised in the recent Quebec's energy policy and taken over by the promoter of Rabaska. It is this time a real smoke and mirrors. To affect demand in peak periods, it would disconnect loads during critical periods, and this can be done only through a local storage of energy (oil or wood, for example), which Is it necessary to say, neither is the case of natural gas or electricity. That's what justifies the interruptible power programs or dual energy provided by distributors. In short, this "miracle solution" would only transfer the problems of an advanced network to another.
In the area of residential heating, natural gas is not an addition to electricity, but a competitor. On the energy front, they are similar in nature, which is obviously not the case for the environment. We can not replace natural gas to electricity for supposedly generate kW for other types of uses. And we certainly can not substitute a "good energy" by a "worse" on the pretext that this will allow us to sell to the highest bidder first. This would violate not only the very principles of Quebec's energy policy but also common sense.
The energy is so good at the right place, which does not mean we should not try to use a more rational and do not treat it as a precious commodity. All ways to save electricity should be encouraged, as should promote dual fuel heating systems or, better yet, geothermal heating systems. The electricity thus released can then be exported without violating any of the principles that had given Quebec in its energy policy and plan of action against climate change.
Falling demand
In summary, then, if we add to the above, the growing impact of energy saving measures which we shall pursue the willingly or unwillingly, it is reasonable to anticipate over the next few years, a sustained decline in gas demand in Quebec.
Regarding the effect on gas prices, the decision of BAPE is scathing: "The commission believes that the increasing supply of natural gas through of liquefied natural gas in Quebec would likely decline by a modest price of natural gas not only in Quebec but across North America due to market integration. "Excluding any potential positive effect of supplies from the Mackenzie and if Rabaska should not happen, natural gas could cost just a few cents more per thousand cubic feet. In such a scenario, if indeed this need existed, it would cost only 2.4% more to import the gas from an LNG terminal in the Gulf of Mexico and 5.4% higher in the absence any other LNG terminal.
The price signal
Before this event, we believe that there would even be welcomed as such a rise would add to the efforts of Quebec to save energy and contribute to the fight against climate change. We repeated the environment that the price signal is the best way to effect change in the habits of consumers of energy, then why not?
In Quebec, only the industrial sector uses oil, may be replaced by natural gas, which represents the grand total that 11% of oil consumption in the province, the equivalent of 60 billion cubic feet. In what and why do we need to import about 200 billion cubic feet of gas to replace a fraction of the 60 billion cubic feet since, in addition, the gas is not available everywhere (Bas-Saint- Laurent, Gaspésie, Côte-Nord)? And it is also necessary that the price is attractive to encourage manufacturers to abandon the oil, which has not been the case lately and does not seem to be the case in the coming years.
We must therefore conclude that the project does not meet any Rabaska energy imperative because, against all logic, we should increase the consumption of gas in Quebec to justify the procurement.
Le Devoir edition of Wednesday, August 8, 2007
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